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runawayhorses


Owner

runawayhorses


Owner
Gypsy is a big fan of Clint Eastwood, or should I say "WAS" a big fan? I suppose Clint Eastwood is stupid and unintelligent now too.

SSC


Admin
LMAO....I loved his speech, to be 82 no teleprompter and they had no clue what he was going to say, he got his point across, loved the empty chair part, truely symbolic of out present leader in absence..Thanks for posting this.
Hope Gyp can console herself over the Republican Clint...

gypsy


Moderator
haha I think it is hilarious old Clint made a laughinstock of the Republican convention. which already was a shambles. I am glad the people put this together it was a good conspiracy, and it worked. cheers

SSC


Admin
awwwwwww, I can hear the trama in your reply oleClint and then the blast on Republicans, are you so obsessed you have lost all humor only left with spite and hate...

runawayhorses


Owner
Yes Clint made a laughing stock of Obama. Clint put it together. But of course you are in denial of this.

Gypsy thinks Clint Eastwood is a Democrat, she refuses to face the facts yet again..

I bet Gypsy thinks the world is flat too, and anyone that says its round is "lying".

SSC


Admin
Nawwww she will blame Bush for the world being round....You know anything that goes wrong or is different than her way of thinking is all on Bush.

runawayhorses


Owner
Yeah very true. I am always astonished at her denial of things. Wow. She denies things that don't support her way of thinking.

Its going to be funny when Obama loses this next election.

SSC


Admin
People with her closed mind way of thinking will be at a loss when Obama loses, there is no way they can conform, they will be lost in bitterness and resentment. A person like that is hard to understand how they exist in a day to day life so blind . Obama is not a god, but to worship failure is just sickening.

runawayhorses


Owner
Well I think putting all your faith in one person is never a good idea, that is a guarantee for a let-down. Obama losing this election must be considered, and the people that put all there eggs in one basket without considering the possibility of him losing are in for a big let-down. The smart person considers the alternatives, a "Plan-B" if you will.

Pastor James David Manning did a sermon on that very thing. He suggested that people that are not planning for Obama to lose are ill-prepared and will suffer a great let-down. They will be lost without a plan. They will be like a drug addict without there fix. For some people Obama has become there drug.

Its never smart to put all your eggs in one basket.

SSC


Admin
I agree to put all your faith in one political party is a disaster waiting to happen, and as we have seen the past almost 4 years it has happened, no budget, stimulus money wasted and no jobs to show for it, nat. debt skyrocketing, businesses closing, healthcare scaring the pants off elderly and doctors, the US standing in the world on shakey ground, China owning a huge chunk of us now and on and on. But you know somehow all will be Bush's fault even down to Obama's bad golf scores in his 111 rounds of golf.

gypsy


Moderator
I follow pollster Nate Silver. He's smart and trustworthy.

Nate knows numbers. His methodology is solid. He uses Math and Statistics and his results have been accurate in the past. This year, too, he is the voice of reason whenever a poll comes out with a wacky result that contradicts what others say.

I know other DKos’ers follow Nate too, and I felt like spreading some cheer after last night’s episode of Le Théâtre du Grand-Guignol, also known as the Republican convention.


Today Nate gives President Obama a 71.6% chance of winning the election in November. This is good news and it means that the uptrend of the last week is extending into the duration of the GOP convention. The improvement in Obama’s numbers this week will be a cushion against any bounce for Romney, if it comes.

Here’s a summary recap of the President’s chance of winning according to Nate’s analysis:

• June 26 – July 2: The SCOTUS ACA Bounce. Obama’s chance of winning rose from 61.1% to 68.6%.
• July 3 – July 28: The summer doldrums. There was little movement in numbers for more than three weeks as Americans drifted off to their summer vacation haze.
• July 29 – Aug. 9: The Romney in Israel/You People bounce. Obama’s chance of winning rose from 66.4% to 73.3%.
• August 12 – August 22: The Ryan Bounce sent the President’s chance of winning into a temporary downtrend from 73.6% to 66.7%.
• August 22 – today: The Todd Akin Backlash Bounce. The President’s chance of winning rose from 66.7% to 71.6% which is where it stands today.

As of August 30, 2012, President Obama has a better than 51% chance of winning in the following 26 states plus DC.
States where President Obama has a better than 51% chance of winning.
attribution: leftreborn
Using US Census data, I mapped the median household income of each state to the list of states in each candidate's column, as calculated by Nate. Is there correlation between the states with the highest income or lowest income and one or the other candidate?

Of the top 25 states in terms of income, 21 of them are in Obama’s column. Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and New Mexico are the exceptions as bottom 25 states in terms of income in Obama’s column.

Of the bottom 10 states in terms of income, all of them are in the Republican column. They are Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

It’s interesting to see alignment to a candidate by income but what could it mean? Republican public policy clearly favors the wealthy privileged few and there's a strong following for it in the states where people earn incomes that are lower than the national average.

The Republican platform is so unappealing it’s hard to imagine what attracts people to it. The Republicans blend some additives into their koolaid: religion, demonization of minorities, the Second Amendment, resentment, anger, and fear. I question whether enough Americans will get intoxicated on that brew this year to be competitive in a national election. It will be interesting to see the total number of votes cast in November. Compared to the 2008 election, it will most likely be fewer.

Although Nate Silver’s analysis today is optimistic, an emphatic word of caution is in order. The presidential and vice presidential debates have potential to change the outcome of an election in any year. There’s no reason to be complacent. Turnout matters. Vote the straight Democratic Party ticket. Let the opposition know clearly that the American people reject Republican nihilism. Even with Democratic Party victories in November, the privileged few pushing behind the Republicans won’t give up. You know this.
Tags

2012 Electionhttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/31/1126198/-Nate-Silver-Obama-has-a-71-6-Chance-of-Winning-the-Election
Barack Obama
nate silver
Polls

SSC


Admin
Never heard of him, must be Obamas drinking buddy

runawayhorses


Owner
Do you ever write your own words, must everything be a copy and paste?

SSC


Admin
When a person has no platform, no ability to think outside the box they are followers, thus left to believe everything written by supporters of their views. They can no longer be independent but must rely on others writings, explaining Gypsys constant CC&P she is not capable on stating facts, numbers, events nor names so she relys on political blogs, opinions and left wing radical sites to gain her information. I personally never read her CC&P it is a waste of space to me and I would not be debating her, it would be the person whose article she posted, she has no opinion only ones borrowed from others.

almajean


Member
To those of you who are ignorant as to who Nate Sivler is,it would behoove you to Google the name. I will tell yoy this much, he is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. His website is FiveThirtyEight.com.

SSC


Admin
Ignorant really, what are you Gyps cheerleader ? To Google it would mean I cared about it which I don't, there are so many of that type out there with an opinion about something that is usually wrong it is a waste of time.

almajean


Member
Tyler, this is a good example as to why you don't have more people posting here. It is why I haven''t done much posting myself. To many just plain mean and snide comments when people do post something that is not agreed with by a few people here. I did not say anything to deserve the snide reply by SSC. I did not call her Ignorant as it seems she thinks. I said "ignorant of a fact". I am ignorant of many things/facts which is why I do a lot of research about all kinds of things. I may or not agree with someone but I don't feel the need to get insulting.

runawayhorses


Owner
almajean wrote:Tyler, this is a good example as to why you don't have more people posting here.
I don't think that has anything to do with it, in fact I don't know of anyone that is staying away. People come and some leave, but no one I know of is purposely staying away because of anyone. Gypsy has suggested what you are suggesting right now. All the years I been running this forum everyone says the same thing. First it was because I allowed Gypsy to post here as to why people stayed away, now you are suggesting it is SSC. I don't buy any of it. If those people are actually staying away because a particular person posts here, then they aren't right for this forum anyway, and I don't miss them at all. It might interest you to know I have close to 4 thousand subscribers at YouTube that comment on my videos on a daily basis, that equals close to 100 unique posters and posts a day. This forum is just a small part of what I do. I get on average 'lately' about ten to fifteen new subscribers a day. I have over 2 million viewers.

Look here for your proof:

http://www.youtube.com/user/avrillavignetalkshow

Not to mention the fansite that I run and my other forum gets its share of posts as well.

I'm telling you this to express my lack of interest in anyone that is staying away from this forum because of someone posting here. This forum is a small part of my audience, and is in no way a reflection of my success. Those people you speak of that are staying away can literally kiss my ass if they even exist, I don't need or want them here.

I actually thought in your first post in this topic that you were suggesting we were ignorant, in a very roundabout fashion. It did seem like an attempt to support Gypsy's post, but it didn't bother me enough to reply to it. Everyone's different, SSC felt like replying so she did, and I understand why. If she was wrong and you are an understanding person you will overlook her remark because you understand why she came to her conclusion.

SSC


Admin
Thank you Tyler, I would like to believe Alma made a poor choice of words, as opposed to ignorant, maybe unaware or something less menancing would have been a better choice.

almajean


Member
Oh for goodness sake I knew exactly which words I chose to use to get a simple point across. You assumed that I meant to be insulting. I do not and will not resort to petty and rude remarks. Now I am going to use the verboten c/c/p to help you understand.
Answer1

Ignorance is a condition or state where a person lacks knowledge about something. It is when the person is uninformed, is uneducated about something.
Answer2

Ignorance simply says we do not know. Ignorance is not stupidity.
study

SSC


Admin
Don't need your help or another CC&P but thanks for you concern.

runawayhorses


Owner
Just to cap-off what I said, I don't even have this forum linked to YouTube or any of my videos although I could very easily, or am I promoting it in any aggressive fashion. I do however have it in search engines. This forum is important to me on a personal level because a lot of my heart and soul is on this forum and a lot went into creating it, but its not important to me that it have a large membership count. I'm not against it having one but its not all important to me that it have one.

Just thought I'd mention that.

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