Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania
Three new Quinnipiac University polls released on Wednesday show President Barack Obama leading presumptive Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.The Quinnipiac polls find evidence of movement since May in Obama's direction in Ohio and Florida and voter support for Obama's newly announced immigration policy, particularly in Florida.
The new Florida survey is the second from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in June, and both give Obama a lead of four percentage points over Romney: 45 percent to 41 percent on the just completed survey and 46 percent to 42 percent on a poll conducted two weeks earlier. These results represent a reversal from a Quinnipiac poll in mid-May that showed Romney leading by six points (47 percent to 41 percent).
Polls by other organizations in May showed a mix of results: three had Obama slightly ahead, and one gave Romney the advantage. When combined in the HuffPost Pollster Florida chart, the combined trend lines show a continuing Obama edge of just under one percentage point (45.5 percent to 44.6 percent). Unless and until other polls confirm the slightly bigger lead measured by Quinnipiac, Florida should be considered a toss-up.
In Ohio, Quinnipiac gives Obama a nine-point advantage over Romney (47 percent to 38 percent), the biggest lead shown by any poll since February and a big gain from the last Quinnipiac poll in early May, which showed Obama with just a one-point lead. An automated Ohio survey released on Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, a firm that conducts surveys for local Democratic candidates, showed Obama leading by a smaller margin (47 percent to 44 percent).
Nevertheless, the HuffPost Pollster Ohio chart shows Romney gaining in Ohio and the trend lines converging, because of two surveys conducted in late May by Purple Strategies and Rasmussen Reports that each gave Romney a slight edge. As with Florida, the Ohio chart's trend lines give Obama an advantage of less than one percentage point (46.2 percent to 45.4 percent), again well within the toss-up range.
In Pennsylvania, the new Quinnipiac survey shows Obama with a six-point lead over Romney (45 percent to 39 percent). Fifteen surveys have been conducted so far this year by six different pollsters, and all but one have shown Obama leading. The current HuffPost Pollster chart for Pennsylvania gives Obama a lead over Romney of just over eight percentage points (47.3 percent to 39.1 percent).
Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/27/quinnipiac-polls-obama-romney_n_1630225.html?ref=@pollster&ncid=webmail1