Week 9: Bulldogs vs. Wildcats Preview/Pick
October 30, 2009 by Qbin Missile Crisis
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NCAA Football Odds – Mississippi State at Kentucky
Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-5 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Kentucky Wildcats (4-3 SU & ATS)
Saturday, October 31 – 7 PM ET
BetUS NCAA Football Odds: KENTUCKY -3.5, Total 46
Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
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MSU has covered four of its last six games
MSU has lost four of its last five games SU
MSU has covered three of its last ten road games
MSU has lost eight of its last ten road games SU
MSU has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
KY has covered two of its last six home games
KY has won 16 of its last 24 home games SU
KY has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
KY has won five of the last seven meetings SU
Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
KY has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team sportsbook NCAAGOTW1 300x600 mybanner1 Week 9: Bulldogs vs. Wildcats Preview/Pick
Although they don’t have a lot of “W’s” to put on their ledger, these two teams aren’t doing that badly in the NCAA football odds, and seem to have made some progress lately. The MSU Bulldogs had a lot of work to do, and they put things in the hands of Dan Mullen, the former offensive coordinator at the University of Florida. Mullen has his team playing hard; they barely missed out on a win when LSU put in a furious goal-line stand against them back on September 26. They were competitive with Georgia Tech before losing a wild one by a 42-31 score; they took things down to the wire with Houston, which was nationally-ranked, and fought all the way against Florida last week, losing 29-19 and intercepting Tim Tebow twice.
Anthony Dixon had a streak of five straight 100-yard games broken against Florida’s rock-ribbed defense last week, but on the season he is still averaging five yards a carry and is 15th in the nation’s rushing statistics. He also brings some veteran presence to the table. So does Tyson Lee; however, Lee is not a talented enough quarterback at this time to run Mullen’s spread the way he wants it run. With three TD passes and nine interceptions and only 163 net rushing yards, he’s more of the problem than the solution.
The Mississippi State defense has been vulnerable to explosive offenses, and that has accounted for its losses in the NCAA football odds, but Kentucky isn’t a team that has one.
The Wildcats have been going with a quarterback-by-committee approach, which has become almost necessary after the injury that drove Mike Hartline out of action, perhaps for the rest of the season (unless they make it to a bowl game). Will Fidler, Morgan Newton (a freshman) and Randall Cobb (who is primarily a rusher and receiver) have all been taking snaps. Last week against Louisiana-Monroe they combined for just 145 yards and two interceptions.
Yet the team has shown signs of life without Hartline. They finished up the South Carolina game nearly beating South Carolina, scored a win over Auburn, then beat ULM by 23 points, which meant a cover in the NCAA football odds.
Oh, a quick word about MSU’s problems against explosive offenses, Florida only got one offensive TD against them. That’s not bad. The Bulldogs have the top offensive weapon on the field in Dixon, they aren’t likely to be at a disadvantage at the quarterback position, and they can exploit Kentucky’s inability to shut down the run (4.5 ypc allowed). The Wildcats could be playing without their two best defensive players – linebacker Micah Johnson, who has a bad knee, and cornerback Trevard Lindley, who has an ankle injury.
We’re taking the points here with Mississippi State, which is the 3.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA football odds.
OUR PLAY: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3.5 ***